新污染物优先控制评价参数体系及赋权方法研究进展

Advances in Evaluation Parameter Frameworks and Weighting Methods for the Prioritization of Emerging Contaminants

  • 摘要: 新污染物种类繁多、数量庞大,科学筛选优先管控对象是环境管理的重要挑战。现有围绕新污染物优先控制评价的研究已发展了多种排序方法,但不同方法在参数选取侧重点和权重确定方式上存在差异,导致部分研究所得的优控清单重合度不足10%,降低了评价结果的一致性与可比性。本文聚焦优先控制评价中的参数选取和赋权方法,系统归纳了环境暴露、毒性风险及环境归趋三类评价参数的演变趋势,并评述主观赋权、客观赋权、主客观结合赋权及智能算法筛选等方法的理论基础、适用条件与局限性。环境暴露评价逐步由生产/使用量和预测环境浓度,向实测浓度、检出率及超标概率等综合表征发展,其中预测环境浓度与实测值之间可能存在一个数量级以上偏差。毒性评价从传统急性毒性指标,向更具类别特异性的风险表征拓展。环境归趋框架则从传统的PBT (持久性、生物累积性和毒性)体系延伸至PMT (持久性、迁移性和毒性)及vPvM (高持久性和高迁移性)体系。赋权方法方面,总体呈现出由单一赋权向组合优化发展的趋势,机器学习进一步拓展了指标贡献识别和高通量筛选能力。针对基础数据完整性、模型可解释性和政策适配性等不足,本文提出应加强关键参数测定、规范优先级定量划分基准、实施因污染物制宜策略以及构建标准化共享数据库等建议,以期为新污染物优控识别提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Emerging contaminants encompass a wide variety of substances, and the scientific identification of priority substances for control remains an important challenge in environmental management. Although numerous prioritization methods have been developed, differences in the emphasis placed on parameter selection and approaches to weight determination have resulted in an overlap of less than 10% among priority control lists in some studies, thereby reducing the consistency and comparability of assessment results. This review focuses on parameter selection and weighting methods in priority control assessment. The evolution of evaluation parameters is systematically summarized across three major dimensions: environmental exposure, toxicity risk, and environmental fate. The theoretical foundations, applicability, and limitations of subjective weighting, objective weighting, combined subjective-objective weighting, and intelligent algorithm-based screening methods are critically reviewed. Environmental exposure assessment is evolving from production/use volume and predicted environmental concentrations toward integrated characterization using measured environmental concentrations, detection frequencies, and exceedance probabilities, with predicted concentrations differing from measured values by more than one order of magnitude in some cases. Toxicity assessment is expanding from conventional acute toxicity endpoints toward class-specific risk characterization. Environmental fate assessment frameworks have also evolved from the traditional PBT (persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity) framework toward PMT (persistence, mobility, and toxicity) and vPvM (very persistent and very mobile) frameworks. Weighting approaches show an overall shift from single-method weighting toward combined optimization, while machine learning has further expanded capabilities for identifying indicator contributions and high-throughput screening. To address current limitations in data completeness, model interpretability, and policy applicability, several recommendations are proposed, including strengthening the measurement of key parameters, standardizing quantitative criteria for priority classification, adopting pollutant-specific evaluation strategies, and establishing standardized and shared databases. This review provides a scientific basis for the prioritization of emerging contaminants.

     

/

返回文章
返回